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Balancing Suspense and Surprise: Timely Decision Making with Endogenous Information Acquisition

机译:平衡悬疑和意外:通过内源信息获取及时做出决策

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We develop a Bayesian model for decision-making under time pressure with endogenous information acquisition. In our model, the decision-maker decides when to observe (costly) information by sampling an underlying continuous-time stochastic process (time series) that conveys information about the potential occurrenceon-occurrence of an adverse event which will terminate the decisionmaking process. In her attempt to predict the occurrence of the adverse event, the decision-maker follows a policy that determines when to acquire information from the time series (continuation), and when to stop acquiring information and make a final prediction (stopping). We show that the optimal policy has a "rendezvous" structure, i.e. a structure in which whenever a new information sample is gathered from the time series, the optimal "date" for acquiring the next sample becomes computable. The optimal interval between two information samples balances a trade-off between the decision maker's "surprise", i.e. the drift in her posterior belief after observing new information, and "suspense", i.e. the probability that the adverse event occurs in the time interval between two information samples. Moreover, we characterize the continuation and stopping regions in the decisionmaker's state-space, and show that they depend not only on the decision-maker's beliefs, but also on the "context", i.e. the current realization of the time series.
机译:我们开发了一种贝叶斯模型,用于在具有内生信息获取的时间压力下进行决策。在我们的模型中,决策者通过采样潜在的连续时间随机过程(时间序列)来决定何时观察(成本高昂的)信息,该过程传达有关不良事件可能发生/未发生的信息,这将终止决策过程。 。在尝试预测不良事件的发生时,决策者遵循一种策略,该策略确定何时从时间序列中获取信息(继续),以及何时停止获取信息并做出最终预测(停止)。我们表明,最佳策略具有“集合体”结构,即其中每当从时间序列中收集新的信息样本时,就可以计算出用于获取下一个样本的最佳“日期”的结构。两个信息样本之间的最佳间隔可以平衡决策者的“惊奇”(即观察新信息后她的后置信念的漂移)和“悬念”(即不良事件在时间间隔之间发生的概率)之间的权衡两个信息样本。此外,我们表征了决策者状态空间中的连续区域和停止区域,并表明它们不仅取决于决策者的信念,而且还取决于“上下文”,即时间序列的当前实现。

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