Universal laws of disaster

摘要

Universal laws play fundamental roles in advancing science and technology. The literature on disasters is vast and multidisciplinary, but very little is quantitative and generally lacks rigorous theory and research on mathematical laws of disaster. This paper presents three formal classes of universal laws of disaster, based on the logic, probability, and severity of the phenomena. These laws are independent of specific drivers of disasters, such as natural or intentional (i.e., man-made) hazards. The main implication of these universal laws of disaster is they provide a core set of principles from which to develop a more viable, general theory of disasters. Such a theory would have pure and applied implications for the science, technology, and management of disasters.