ARIMA implementation to predict the amount of antiseptic medicine usage in veterinary hospital

摘要

The medicine is a tool for patients either human or animal to treat or prevent disease. One of the medicines which often used to help prevent infections is an antiseptic medicine. Povidone-iodine is an antiseptic and disinfectant medicine that is extensively used by hospital and other health care. A health care institution such as pharmacies or hospitals must ensure the availability of medicines for patients. These things make the pharmaceutical dealing with the uncertainty of the medicine needed. Veterinary hospital as a health service provider has several challenges. One of the challenges is it must ensure the availability of the medicine needed at all time. The predictive capability of the amount of medicine usage can assist for managing the availability of medicines in veterinary hospitals. This study analyses and presents a forecasting model using ARIMA method to predict an antiseptic povidone-iodine usage at Prof. Soeparwi Veterinary Hospital. ARIMA method was selected because the method can be used in fitting forecasting models when there is a non-stationary time series and the method has capability to correct for local trend in data. Results of this study is ARIMA (1,0,1) was selected as a suitable model to represent historical dataset.