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Formalizing Acquisition Path Analysis for the IAEA's State-Level Concept

机译:原子能机构国家层面概念的正式获取路径分析

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The IAEA's Department of Safeguards has embarked on an evolutionary process to more fully develop and apply the State-level concept for safeguards implementation. In an attempt to direct safeguards to areas of greatest proliferation risk, this concept makes use of all safeguards-relevant information available in order to focus and prioritize its safeguards activities for a State. A key component is the development of a State-level Approach which consists of analyzing acquisition paths, establishing and prioritizing technical objectives, and identifying applicable safeguards measures. The methodology to accomplish this is based on a three-step-approach: network modeling, network analysis, and strategic assessment. The network modeling step assesses and formalizes the State's nuclear capabilities as well as other state-specific factors concerning relevant proliferation scenarios. The network analysis step gives a ranking of all plausible acquisition paths including a visualization of the paths. Finally, the strategic assessment evaluates the State's proliferation and compliance options as well as the IAEA's set of technical objectives and subsequent safeguards measures. In this paper, a hypothetical State model was developed in order to test the methodology's performance. Therefore, an Excel spreadsheet with all necessary state-level factors has been created. Afterwards, a Python software module based on graph theoretical algorithms was applied to produce a comprehensive list of ranked acquisition paths including their visualization. The following step of the strategic evaluation is mainly based on the concept of the Nash equilibrium resulting in a stable combination of the State's and the IAEA's strategies. This formal and automatic procedure offers the advantage of gaining results in a comprehensive and non-discriminative manner.
机译:原子能机构保障司已着手发展,以更充分地发展和应用国家一级的保障执行概念。为了将保障措施引向扩散风险最大的地区,该概念利用了所有与保障措施有关的信息,以集中精力并为国家确定其保障活动的优先次序。关键组成部分是制定国家级方法,其中包括分析获取途径,确定技术目标并确定其优先级,并确定适用的保障措施。实现此目标的方法基于三个步骤:网络建模,网络分析和战略评估。网络建模步骤评估并正式确定了该州的核能力以及与相关扩散情况有关的其他特定于州的因素。网络分析步骤对所有可能的采集路径进行了排名,包括路径的可视化。最后,战略评估评估了该国的扩散和遵约选择以及原子能机构的一系列技术目标和随后的保障措施。在本文中,开发了一个假设的状态模型,以测试该方法的性能。因此,具有所有必要的状态级别因素的Excel电子表格已创建。此后,基于图论算法的Python软件模块被应用以生成包含获取路径的完整列表,包括它们的可视化。战略评估的后续步骤主要基于纳什均衡的概念,从而使国家战略与国际原子能机构的战略稳定地结合在一起。这种正式和自动的程序具有以全面且非歧视性的方式获得结果的优势。

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