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Formalizing Acquisition Path Analysis for the IAEA's State-Level Concept

机译:IAEA国家级概念的正式采集路径分析

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The IAEA's Department of Safeguards has embarked on an evolutionary process to more fully develop and apply the State-level concept for safeguards implementation. In an attempt to direct safeguards to areas of greatest proliferation risk, this concept makes use of all safeguards-relevant information available in order to focus and prioritize its safeguards activities for a State. A key component is the development of a State-level Approach which consists of analyzing acquisition paths, establishing and prioritizing technical objectives, and identifying applicable safeguards measures. The methodology to accomplish this is based on a three-step-approach: network modeling, network analysis, and strategic assessment. The network modeling step assesses and formalizes the State's nuclear capabilities as well as other state-specific factors concerning relevant proliferation scenarios. The network analysis step gives a ranking of all plausible acquisition paths including a visualization of the paths. Finally, the strategic assessment evaluates the State's proliferation and compliance options as well as the IAEA's set of technical objectives and subsequent safeguards measures. In this paper, a hypothetical State model was developed in order to test the methodology's performance. Therefore, an Excel spreadsheet with all necessary state-level factors has been created. Afterwards, a Python software module based on graph theoretical algorithms was applied to produce a comprehensive list of ranked acquisition paths including their visualization. The following step of the strategic evaluation is mainly based on the concept of the Nash equilibrium resulting in a stable combination of the State's and the IAEA's strategies. This formal and automatic procedure offers the advantage of gaining results in a comprehensive and non-discriminative manner.
机译:国际原子能机构的保障部门已经开始进化进化过程,以便更全面地制定和应用国家级概念进行保障实施。为了试图向最大扩散风险的保护区指向最大的领域,这一概念利用所有可用的保障 - 相关信息,以便重点,并优先考虑其对国家的保障活动。一个关键组成部分是发展状态级方法,该方法包括分析采集路径,建立和优先考虑技术目标,并确定适用的保障措施。实现这一目标的方法是基于三步方法:网络建模,网络分析和战略评估。网络建模步骤评估和正式确定国家的核能力以及有关相关扩散情景的其他国家特定因素。网络分析步骤给出了所有合理的采集路径的排名,包括路径的可视化。最后,战略评估评估了国家的扩散和合规选择以及国际原子能机构的技术目标以及随后的保障措施。在本文中,开发了一个假设的状态模型,以便测试方法的性能。因此,已经创建了具有所有必要状态级因子的Excel电子表格。之后,应用了基于图形理论算法的Python软件模块,以产生包括其可视化的排名采集路径的综合列表。战略评估的以下步骤主要基于纳什均衡的概念,导致国家和原子能机构的稳定结合和原子能机构的策略。这种正式和自动的程序提供了以全面和非歧视的方式获得结果的优势。

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