Research on Method of Urban Traffic Mode Split Forecast in the Case of Introduction of Bus Rapid Transit

摘要

Today, China has entered a stage of rapid urbanization and growing numbers of people are gathered in the city. To adapt to this rapid economic development, a new solution for public transport which is different from subway, light rail and traditional public traffic is required. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) which has many advantages such as a lower investment cost, short construction cycle, rapid speed, lower pollution and greater capacity has been adopted widely all over the country. Many cities hold incorrect opinions that BRT can solve the urban transport issues. This paper studies the suitability of BRT in China's medium sized cities and the method of traffic mode split forecasting with the introduction of BRT, and takes an example of YiChang. The paper analyzes the factors influencing the travel mode choice of residents, and develops a multinomial logit model using RP data and SP data. The paper provides a theory for using traffic policy to adjust the structure of a public transit system.