Passenger flow forecasting is an important basis of the optimization of transportation organization, and also a task with strong uncertainty due to the relationship to the economic and social characteristics of a region. Nanning-Guangzhou and Guiyang-Guangzhou high-speed rail were in operation at the end of 2014, but they are not corresponding conventional rail lines so the rail passenger flow data of this region is lacking. It is hard to forecast the high-speed rail passenger flow only based on the travel characteristics of this region. The aim of this paper is to propose a feasible method to forecast passenger flow of the new high-speed rail in the case of a lack of data. Taking Nanning-Guangzhou high-speed rail for example, the method is to compare this line with other operated high-speed lines in terms of passenger traffic structure, line distances, station numbers and distribution. This paper chooses Ningbo-Fuzhou high-speed rail which similarly lacks a conventional rail as a reference. Then, the differences in economics and the population are taken into consideration and the four-step method is applied to calculate the relevant parameters. Ultimately, the passenger flow of Nanning-Guangzhou and Guiyang-Guangzhou high-speed rail in 2015 is estimated.
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