Simulation Model for Counter-Measures against Aedes Aegypti

摘要

Modelling infectious disease outbreak requires extensive understanding of disease characteristics and outbreak dynamics. Predicting future trends of the disease is required for health officials to make informed decisions in planning effective counter-measures. This requires versatile decision support systems equipped to direct suitable decision measures that would help control rapid spread of the epidemic in the case of an outbreak. To date, no such interactive toolset has been developed in Pakistan. We have focused on the development of a visual analytics toolset through which the user can interactively analyze threat response measures and examine their impact over time. In the toolset, we have created simulation modules representing preventive measures for infectious disease control. The measures include modelling of pesticide spray and destruction of the breeding sites of the disease-carrying vectors. Statistical predictive models are devised which in the case of outbreak will be used to monitor the outbreak and allocate resources depending upon the predicted region, severity, and duration of the outbreak. The decision support system hence created contains simulation models that are used to maximize the use of counter-measure resources.