Utilization of Modeling and Simulation in the Design of Air Defense

摘要

A key feature of a military operation is its non-repeatability, with a results that can affect history. The success of a military operation depends on the ability and art of the commanders and their staffs to implement the decision-making process. Critical part of the decision-making process is the creation of variants of the activities of own troops based on variants of enemy activities and based on knowledge of the structure and behavior of the enemy. In the case of ground air defense, the variants (courses) of actions are primarily designed with respect to the anticipated air enemy in air defense clusters. Courses of actions can be mutually assessed based on the effectiveness and efficiency of air defense clusters. Nowadays, the creation of courses of actions is a time-consuming stage in the decision-making process, which depends on the knowledge, skills and experience of the commanders and staffs. War games used to evaluate courses of actions do not allow to assess all possible situations and responses. Modeling and simulation is an appropriate apparatus for evaluating variants of the air enemy's activities and based on such results it is possible to decide on the optimum battle configuration of own forces. The model of the enemy's activity structure, own troops, and environment will allow to simulate a large number of combat activities on both sides and assess the most appropriate option for own troops. Probabilistic methods such as the Monte Carlo method and its derivatives will allow the evaluation of the activity variants. The results of the use of probabilistic methods will then be used in the application of game theory and determination of optimal courses of actions, strategy in the sense of game theory, own forces. By programming the models, commanders and staffs will be given a tool to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of ground-based air defense clusters and will be able to make adequate decisions. This article brings a concept of such tool.