Vessel traffic flow prediction model based on complex network

摘要

A complex network structure can describe many real systems, ports system meet characteristics of complex network system. This paper built a new weighted port evolutional network model using vessel traffic flow as the relevance rating affecting port evolution, on the basis of this. It proposed a port vessel traffic flow forecasting model based on complex networks and used vessel traffic volume of Tianjin Port during 2002-2013 years as the experimental data and ultimately verified and predicted it through the use of forecasting model parameters obtained by fitting port network kinetic equations and numerical, as a result, the error between the experimental results calculated by model and actual data is 4.95%, and the average prediction error during 2009-2013 is less than 2%, the fitting of parameters in this model needed to be supported by historical data, so this model is only applicable in short-term prediction with high accuracy.