A new algorithm based on artificial bee colony algorithm for energy demand forecasting in Turkey

摘要

In this study, an energy demand forecasting algorithm based on the Artificial Bee Colony with Variable Search Strategies (ABCVSS) method was proposed in order to determine Turkey's long-term energy demand. Linear and quadratic equations were used for energy demand forecasting and the coefficients of the equations were determined by means of the ABCVSS method. With the ABCVSS method, an attempt was made to enhance the local and global searching capacity of the ABC algorithm by using five different search strategies. GDP, population, imports and exports data of the period from 1979 to 2005 were chosen as the input parameters for the proposed method. Long-term energy demand was predicted through one scenario and the obtained performance from the proposed method was compared to those obtained from PSO, ACO and HAP algorithms in the literature. It was determined that the proposed method is statistically more successful than the other methods.