Anticipatory en-route guidance consistent with drivers’ diversion behavior: a case study

摘要

This paper aims to develop a behavior-consistent anticipatory en-route guidancemethodology to determine VMS-based route guidance strategies that are consistent with thecontroller’s objectives and drivers’ en-route diversion behavior. The optimization procedure ofroute guidance strategies comprises a VMS control heuristic model that determines the desireddiversion rates to satisfy some system-wide objectives of the controller, a VMS-based routeguidance model that updates the VMS message strategies to minimize the difference between thedesired diversion rates and the diversion rates obtained from the diversion behavior model, and acontroller-estimated drivers’ en-route diversion behavior model that predicts the likely driver routechoice decisions in light of the updated VMS message strategies. The implementation resultsdemonstrate that the VMS-based guidance information displayed by the proposed model is wellreceived by drivers. The findings also reveal that the integrated and coordinated VMS-based routeguidance strategies effectively provides guidance to drivers, enhances the accuracy of traffic stateprediction, and encourages better use of roadway capacity, thereby resulting in better systemperformance over the same period of operations.