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Global LNG Contract Terms and Revisions: An Empirical Analysis

机译:全球LNG合同条款和修订:实证分析

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The majority of liqueed natural gas (LNG) has been and is still sold under condential,bilateral long-term contracts. While it is generally accepted that contracted LNG prices (partic-ularly in Asia) are indexed to crude oil, actual prices, contract terms and price revision clausesare not public. To the author's knowledge, no other academic work has ever investigated in-dividual LNG pricing series in an empirical way. Understanding these changes may provideindicators about how pricing will change as a spot market continues to develop. Using customsdata and recent techniques for detecting unknown structural breaks in cointegrated regressions, Iestimate both when and how contracts are revised for thirteen Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese andSpanish price series. Results suggest that Japanese contracts have undergone the most revision,with pricing terms increasing during the mid to late 2000s after LNG had been under-pricedfor a number of years. Notably, contracts do not seem to have been revised wholesale after theFukushima disaster, which would be consistent with contracts being revised in response to price,not quantity shocks. Korean and Taiwanese contracts are tightly linked to oil and seem relativelystable. Spanish contracts also appear to be oil-indexed, but to a lesser degree.
机译:绝大部分液化天然气(LNG)一直以保密方式出售, 双边长期合同。虽然人们普遍认为合同制LNG价格(特别是 通常在亚洲)索引到原油,实际价格,合同条款和价格修订条款 不公开。据作者所知,还没有其他学术作品在以下方面进行过调查: 以经验的方式对各个LNG定价系列。了解这些更改可能会提供 有关随着现货市场的发展定价将如何变化的指标。使用习俗 数据和用于检测协整回归中未知结构断裂的最新技术,I 估算13种日文,韩文,台湾文和英文的合同的修订时间和方式 西班牙价格系列。结果表明,对日本合同的修订最多, 在LNG价格过低后,定价条款在2000年代中期到后期有所增加 多年了。值得注意的是,在 福岛灾难,这将与因应价格而修订的合同保持一致, 不是数量的冲击。韩国和台湾的合同与石油紧密相关,而且似乎相对而言 稳定的。西班牙合同似乎也以石油为索引,但程度较低。

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