REIMAGINING UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY EVALUATION IN AEROSPACE NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT - TIME AND COST PLANNING PERSPECTIVE.

摘要

Product development in aerospace industry runs through a complex system of process and resource. Concurrency issues and diversity of uncertainty sources intensify this complexity. The presence of high uncertainty level makes it more difficult to plan activities with the required accuracy. Thereby, product development is subject to severe cost and schedule overrun. Thus, uncertainty and complexity evaluation is a key element for cost and time planning. Current uncertainty and complexity evaluation approaches are in most cases hard to apply or not adequate for aerospace new product development. This is due to the lack of factors customization or availability of required data. The aim of this paper is to explore uncertainty evaluation issues in aerospace new product development based on existing research papers and ongoing experience with product development in aerospace industry. A new evaluation method is developed for uncertainty. We deeply examine complexity drivers regarding aerospace projects features and issues. Finally, we introduce an integrated evaluation and measurement approach of uncertainty and complexity with a focus on planning improvement. The measurement method is illustrated through a case study from a recent major aerospace project to facilitate the understanding of how to use the method. This paper will emphasize the determinant effect of uncertainty and complexity factors on project performance and how it is crucial to integrate these factors to improve accuracy of project planning. Results suggest that more research efforts must be given to uncertainty and complexity as key concepts in aerospace product development performance.