Changing Climate in Rural Canada: Unking Scientific Evidence and Population Perspectives

摘要

Background: Adaptation is an important means of protecting communities from the adverse health impacts of climate change. However, disconnections between scientific evidence of climate change & population perspectives complicate the development of meaningful adaptation strategies. Interestingly, the majority of global studies address them in two different contexts. Aims: The study aims to analyze the pattern of climate change in some Canadian communities, explore their perspectives on climate change and establish links between two. Methods: A telephone survey was carried out in 2012 in 65 communities in Western Newfoundland. The participants were above 40 years old & residents of the area for at least 30 years. Survey results were subsequently compared to trend analyses of data collected from nearby climate stations, operated by Environment Canada. Results: Out of 97 participants, 96.9% reported noticeable changes in climate over the past 20-30 years. 95.5% and 97.7% respectively experienced warmer summers and winters. 80.3% reported longer summers, while 90.5% reported shorter winters. 97.7% noticed less snowfall. Analysis of collocated climate stations confirm that shifts consistent with projected anthropogenic warming have occurred in recent decades. However, the region's response to climate change has been delayed relative to the majority of Canada. Until recently, the study area was experiencing a decades-long cool period associated with natural climate variability, which effectively masked any anthropogenic influences. This cool period effectively ended in the late 1990s; it is likely that this rebound to 'normal' conditions, combined with gradual anthropogenic warming trends, has amplified the public's perception of climate change. Conclusions: Population perspective of climate change is consistent with scientific evidence at local level, indicating potential opportunity to develop socially acceptable adaptation strategies.