Nearly 1.8 billion people are estimated to be at risk of DF. DF occurred frequently in Guangdong, China. Evaluating the risk of DF transmission could contribute to the surveillance and early warning system. However, the relationship between the risk posed by infected travelers, climate and vectors was still unclear. Aims The research aims to explore the impact of imported cases, climatic variability and vector population dynamics on DF transmission in Guangzhou City, China. Methods Data on climate factors, vector surveillance and notified DF cases in Guangzhou City from Jan 2001 to Dec 2010 were collected. Multiple logistic regression modelandtime series negative binomial model were used to assess the associations between climate factors, vector, imported DF cases and indigenous DF cases. Results Our results showed that indigenous cases (Odds Ratio (OR):8.3;95%CI:2.6-26.3), imported cases(OR:1.6; 95% CI:0.8-3.1) and average atmospheric pressure(OR:0.7; 95% CI:0.6-0.9) at a lag of 1 month, as well as average relative humidity(OR:1.5;95%CI:1.1-2.1), Breteau Index of mosquitoes(BI)(OR:1.4; 95% CI:1.1-1.9), and total precipitation(OR:0.9; 95%CI:0.9-1.0) at a lag of 2 monthswere associated with the occurrence of indigenous cases. Minimum temperature(Relative Risk(RR):1.5;95%CI:1.2-1.8), average relative humidity (RR:1.3;95%CI: 1.2-1.5) and Bl (RR:1.11; 95%CI:1.0-1.2) at lag of 1 month, as well as minimum relative humidity at a lag of 2 months (RR:1.3; 95% CI:1.2-1.4) were associated with the incidences of indigenous DF cases. Conclusions The DF transmission was affected by a combination of climate factors, density of vectors and imported cases in Guangzhou City, China.These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk-management programs for DF.
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