Implications of Climate Change Induced Temperature Rise on Food and Waterborne Diseases and Heat-Related Mortality

摘要

Background Climate change affects human health in multiple ways, including exposure to thermal extremes and weather disasters, spread of vector- and rodent-borne diseases, emergence of new infectious diseases, pests and pathogens, food and water insecurity and deterioration of water quality. Aims This study attempts to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food- and water-borne illnesses, as well as increase in premature mortality associated with temperature rise in the context of an urban coastal city, taking the Greater Beirut Area as a study area. Methods Climate projections, as forecasted by regional and global climate models, were used to predict the increase in daily temperature during the 21st century. A Poisson generalized linear model was then developed to quantify the relationship between climatic parameters and the number of reported food- and water-borne disease cases. As for the impact of heat on premature mortality, it was assessed using an empirical temperature-mortality model developed for Beirut city. Results The established correlation shows a decrease in the number of food and waterborne illnesses with increasing temperature until reaching a threshold of 19.2°C, beyond which the number of morbidity cases increases with temperature. By 2050, the results show a substantial increase in food- and water-borne related morbidity of 16 to 28% that can reach up to 42% by the end of the century under A1FI or can be reversed to ～0% under Bl. In the case of heat-related mortality, during the first half of the 21st century, the expected life losses due to high temperatures in hot days are offset by expected life gains due to improved temperatures in cold days, except under the scenario that reflects intensive fossil fuel development. By year 2095, the annual average all-cause premature mortality is expected to increase by 3 to 15 %, depending on the scenario. This dependency of the results on the climatic scenario adopted highlights the need for early mitigation and adaptation measures.