The methods used to produce news rankings by recommender systems are not public and it is unclear if they reflect the real importance assigned by readers. We address the task of trying to forecast the number of times a news item will be tweeted, as a proxy for the importance assigned by its readers. We focus on methods for accurately forecasting which news will have a high number of tweets as these are the key for accurate recommendations. This type of news is rare and this creates difficulties to standard prediction methods. Recent research has shown that most models will fail on tasks where the goal is accuracy on a small sub-set of rare values of the target variable. In order to overcome this, resampling approaches with several methods for handling imbalanced regression tasks were tested in our domain. This paper describes and discusses the results of these experimental comparisons.
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