Decision-Theoretic Prediction and Policy Design of GDP Slot Auctions

摘要

We examine the potential for a simple auction to allocate arrival slots during Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) more efficiently than the currently used system. The analysis of these auctions uses Predictive Game Theory (PGT) Wolpert and Bono (2013, 2010), a new approach that produces a probability distribution over strategies instead of an equilibrium set. Furthermore, the game we consider is one of imperfect information and we show how averaging over priors still generates quantities of interest from the PGT distribution. We find that the second-price slot auction has the potential to lower social costs but further analysis is needed to determine which pre-GDP schedules are best suited for an auction.