POLICY INTRODUCTION EFFECT PREDICTION DEVICE, POLICY INTRODUCTION EFFECT PREDICTION PROGRAM AND POLICY INTRODUCTION EFFECT PREDICTION METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To improve prediction accuracy when predicting effects of policy introduction.SOLUTION: A policy introduction effect prediction device includes: a model calculation unit which calculates a calculation model on the basis of difference data calculated from time series data of an objective variable and difference data calculated from time series data of an explanatory variable: a variation calculation unit which calculates a variation of the objective variable by inputting a variation of the explanatory variable in the case of policy introduction, to the calculation model; and a predictive value calculation unit which calculates a predictive value of the objective variable in the case of policy introduction by adding the variation of the objective variable to a predictive value of the objective variable without policy introduction.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4