Dynamic Evaluation and Control of Ecological Footprint of Zhejiang Based on the Grey Prediction Mode

摘要

The ecological footprint of Zhejiang from 1997 to 2003 and the forecast models of ecological footprint and ecological capacity were calculated in the paper. Results showed that the ecological footprint per capita gradually increased from 1.2368 hm{sup}2 in 1997 to 1.3878 hm{sup}2 in 2003, and the ecological deficit increased from 0.7705 hm{sup}2 in 1997 to 0.9677 hm{sup}2 in 2003, and while the ecological capacity decreased from 0.4663 hm{sup}2 to 0.4202 hm{sup}2. Ecological footprint of Zhejiang is more than the ecological capacity from 1997 to 2003, indicating a relatively unsustainable situation in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, the feasibility and rationality of the model of the grey system theory to forecast the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Zhejiang were evaluated. Through residual deviation and posterior error ratio examination, the grey forecast models accuracy is first class, and the maximum relative error is only -2.3699%, and the precision of these forecasting models is very good, and the method can use to estimate the time series value of ecological footprint and ecological capacity. Ecological footprint and ecological deficit of Zhejiang will keep sharp upward tendency.