Consumer Demand, Investment Demand and Housing Price Volatility

摘要

Considering the two characters of real estate: consumer attribute and investment attribute, the aggregate demand of real estate could be subdivided into consumer demand and investment demand. And in this paper, psychology expectation is quantified by gray prediction method, and then the real estate price model is established. Based on the theoretical model, using national quarterly data-from January 1999 to June 2011, we empirically analyze the effect of demand on housing price. The results demonstrate that investment demand can be used to explain housing price volatility better than consumer demand nowadays. Compared with the other factors, psychology expectation and down payment policy have much greater influence on housing price. In the end, some reasonable policy proposals on controlling price will be given on the stage.