Assessment of the Degree of Willingness to Change from Motorized Travel Modes to Walking or Cycling

摘要

This paper presents an analysis of the degree of willingness to change from motorized travelmodes to walking or cycling, with the aim to reduce uncertainty between stated willingness tochange and real shifts from car or transit to non-motorized transportation modes. Data wascollected in the city of Valencia (Spain) using a novel data collection effort based on multiplesurvey methods. Respondents traveling by car or transit were asked about their willingness tochange to walking or cycling under the implementation of improvement measures to beselected. Then, a hypothetical scenario was presented to those respondents stating to bewilling to change, in which previously selected measures were implemented and they weresupposed to be cycling or walking. In this scenario, the costs of their usual travel mode weregradually reduced until they gave up cycling or walking. Those decided to keep on walkingor cycling are assumed to have a strong willingness to change.A statistical analysis carried out using Heckman's sample selection model allow us toidentify demographic, socioeconomic and travel-related factors influencing the degree ofwillingness to change. Results reveal that car users present a stronger willingness to switch towalking or cycling compared to transit users. In addition, older respondents show a strongerwillingness to change to both walking and cycling. Work/school related journeys are lessassociated to walking than non-commuting journeys, but they are more related to cycling.Policy implications of the analysis of the results are highlighted.