Causality between the Built Environment and Travel Behavior:A Structural Equations Model Applied to Southern California

摘要

The goal of this study is to explore the causality between the built environment and threetransportation modes (private vehicles, mass transit, and non-motorized modes such asbicycling and walking) while accounting for socio-demographical characteristics tounderstand what factors may foster transit and non-motor use. Data from the NationalHousehold Transportation Survey 2009 (NHTS 2009) combined with Los Angeles Countyland use data were used to estimate a recursive Structural Equations Model, to examine thecausality direction and to quantify the built environment effect and residential self-selectioneffect. Results suggest that urban planning strategies that promote high population andemployment density, land use mix, high 4-way intersection density and road density as wellas good transit service can either significantly encourage transit use, bicycling and walk orreduce VMT. However, the relatively small effect size of the built environment on travelbehavior implies that achieving the above planning goals may cause considerable residentialrelocation, which contributes the major part of observed travel behavior changes.