Travel time estimation for signalized arterials using probabilistic modeling

摘要

Travel time is an important performance measure for transportation facilities. The objective ofthis research is to develop a model for estimating travel time for signalized arterials usingprobabilistic modeling. The model provides travel time based on the cycle length, green times,link lengths, maximum operating speed, offsets, acceleration/deceleration rate, and the per laneentering flow rate at each intersection. Results from the model were compared to a field datacalibratedsimulator, and it was concluded that travel times from the simulation and theanalytical model are similar and have similar trends. Increases in the g/C ratio and theacceleration/deceleration rate result in decreasing travel time. The impacts of other factors, suchas link length, speed, and flow rate are not consistent: they mostly depend on the prevailingoffsets. It was concluded that the analytical model can estimate the arterial travel time and itsvariability with reasonable accuracy.