Sigmoid Distress Prediction Models at Project Level for Main Urban Flexible Pavements based on Historical Data

摘要

The development of distress prediction models for overlaid flexible main streetpavements in large municipalities cross Saudi Arabia is described. The sigmoid of modelsrepresented quantitatively predict distress density versus pavement age and are basedon pavement condition data maintained by the General Directorate of Operation andMaintenance (GDOM) at the Municipality of Riyadh city, Jeddah city, Makkah holy city,Madinah city, and Damam city. Different model forms of the sigmoid family wereexamined in an attempt to identify the most appropriate one for fitting the data. Modelsare available for the following distress types in flexible main street pavements: BlockCracks, Longitudinal and Transverse Cracking, Patching, Potholes, Depressions,Weathering and Raveling, and Cracking (due to patching). The seven models have beendeveloped using more than 11 years survey data for overlaid sections on the roadnetwork of Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, Madinah, and Damam. In all prediction models, ageis by far the most significant predictor of deterioration. The traffic volume in terms ofAnnual Daily Traffic (ADT) and the drainage play only a secondary role in forecastingprediction of distress propagation. In general, the developed models provided anadequate fit and generated predictions that conform to accepted engineering judgment.