Motivated by needs in strategic trafficflow management, we study the problem offorecasting airport capacity profiles over a full-daytime horizon. Specifically, we present a case study ofAtlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport(KATL), which explores use of 1) convective weatherpresence/absence near the terminal, 2) cloud ceilingheight, and 3) wind speed as predictors of the totalairport capacity. It is shown that terminal-areaconvective weather is a primary cause of capacityreduction, and also that low ceilings are a sensitiveand specific predictor of reduced capacity. Windspeeds are shown to be less specific predictors, butnevertheless modulate capacity. Using theseanalyses, a preliminary predictive model thatstochastically generates capacity profiles is proposed.This model leverages Terminal Aerodrome Forecastsof wind and ceilings, as well as convective-weatherscenarios obtained from an ensemble-forecastderivedweather simulator, in generating possibleprofiles. Model-generated forecast profiles forAtlanta Hartsfield airport are compared with thehistorical profile for a particular bad-weather day ofinterest, September 26, 2010.
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