A Mathematical Modeling Approach for Assessing the Energy Crisis in Jordan

摘要

Jordan's oil shale reserves could help reduce reliance on imported hydrocarbons as well as playing a major role in Jordan's energy mix strategy and eventually to ensure energy security. Jordan imports up to 97% of its energy, including fuel to fire its power stations. In recent years, Jordan has experienced frequent disruptions of gas supplies from Egypt that have left the Kingdom struggling to find energy alternatives, coupled with rising oil prices. Such costs are expected to increase with increasing demand for electricity by 7-9% each year. The dependency on imported energy could be reduced, at least in part, through development of Jordan's oil shale resources. Progress has been made and the country will start up its first power plant using indigenous oil shale resources from deposits at Al-Lajjun and Attarat. The Natural Resources Authority (NRA) of Jordan estimates that up to 70 billion tons of near surface and commercially viable oil shale is available and could provide up to 35 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The Government plans to proceed with the oil shale power plant projects to develop a total capacity of 460 and 900 MW to be built, owned and operated (BOO) by Enefit and the Chinese Emirati Jordanian Consortium respectively in the Al-Lajjun and Attarat um Ghudran Areas south of Amman. Deeply buried oil shale resources are being explored, appraised, pilot tested and developed by the Jordan Oil Shale Company "JOSCO" a wholly owned subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell in a multi-stage pre-development period that could last for an estimated 12-18 years. Two other agreements were concluded in addition to one agreement to be ratified in the near future to develop the near surface deposits in Central Jordan. A Mathematical Modeling approach has been developed to assess the input and output of the intended projects on Jordan's economy and energy perspectives is used with emphasis on water demand, supply, desalination, abstraction and consumption; the oil shale resource's genesis, mining and suitability for the intended project; oil production and quantities predicted and electricity generation from power plant projects and oil projects. This has been done in order to tangibly examine the effect on the energy forecast and predict the time needed for these developments to have an impact on the Jordanian energy crisis.