Monte Carlo Prediction of The Extreme Values of The Combined Load Effect And Semi-Probabilistic Design of Ocean-Going Ships

摘要

Based on Poisson models, the Monte Carlo simulation of the combined still-water and wave load effects is carried out to estimate extreme values of the combined load effects of oceangoing ships. The extreme values predicted are compared with those based on the theoretical methods. The numerical analyses show that the results based on the two methods agree with very well. Moreover, the empirical distribution of the combine extreme values simulated and numerical theoretical distribution based on a load combination analysis can both be well fitted to an analytical extreme value distribution model of Type Ⅱ. Besides, a strength model of a ship hull beam is developed based on the fatigue analyses. Finally, with the models developed for load effect and strength, the simplified reliability analyses are carried out for an ocean going ship.