Energy Security,Sustainability and Affordability in Developing Asia 2010—2035: A Quantitative Analysis

摘要

In 2010, Asia accounted for about 28% of the global GDP, and about 30% of the world's primary energy consumption. Under some scenarios, energy demand is envisioned to increase by more than 40%-75% until 2035. These will undoubtedly change radically the energy security status quo, with Asian economies relying heavily on energy imports and shifting their emphasis to increasing their energy security. Some Asian countries are also likely to become important contributors to Green House Gas emissions.The aim of this paper is to quantify the current status of Developing Asia countries in respect of the security, sustainability and affordability of their energy systems, and their likely evolution up to 2035. To do so, we build a system of indicators that can be used to extract information on the outcome of energy scenarios and policies, and to benchmark the countries of Developing Asia against Developed Asia, and other regions in the world.We find that generally the energy security of Developing Asia until 2035 will deteriorate, as the depletion of local resources will significantly impair energy self-sufficiency, while energy-source diversification (which we take as an indicator for resilience) will remain (generally) at current levels. Regarding sustainability, while the primary energy intensity will improve substantially in many countries, the CO_2 intensity of the primary energy mix will not. The affordability of electricity will improve throughout Asia and the Pacific as a consequence of economic development, but there will be still an affordability gap between developing and developed economies in the region.