Quantitative Analysis of the Feasibility of Realizing the Transformation to Clean Energy for China’s Energy Increment by 2035

摘要

China aims to realize the clean transformation of energy increment by 2035, that is, the increment of energy demand is entirely provided by clean energy sources such as natural gas and non-fossil energy sources. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the feasibility and challenges of achieving the above-mentioned transition goal. Taking into account such factors as mid-and-long term economic development, advances in energy technology, energy efficiency and energy policy, and setting benchmark scenarios and high-speed development scenarios to cope with the uncertainty of development, the total energy consumption of China and the development scale of various types of clean energy in 2035 are predicted. Then this paper constructs the electric power and electric energy balancing model for electric power system, which considers the capacity value of new energy generation, to obtain the power installation capacity and electric generation, and quantitatively studies the incremental supply composition of energy and electric power demand during 2021 to 2035. Based on the feasibility analysis, the paper puts forward the main challenges in the process of energy increment clean transformation. Finally a brief outlook for the policy and technology requirements for achieving the energy clean transition is provided. The results of this study show that, under China's policy of accelerating the renewable energy development, China can probably achieve the goal to meet all the energy incremental demand by clean energy by 2035. The new energy and natural gas will be the very important factors affecting the future energy mix, and they are also the key to realize the energy clean transition. Large-scale new energy integration will cause the power system from quantitative to qualitative change, and it is necessary to advance overall planning and to strengthen the forward-looking technology reserves for the planning and operation of power systems with a high proportion of new energy integration.