Simulation of Potential Tsunami Hazard in the South China Sea for Assessing Impact on South China

摘要

Since 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the potential tsunami hazard from Manila trench has been highlighted of concerns by the countries surrounding the South China Sea. In this paper, we focus on the impact of potential tsunami hazard on southern China based on numerical method as well as theoretical analysis. A tsunami scenario induced by a hypothetical earthquake in the Manila Trench is simulated by using a finite-difference model based on nonlinear shallow-water equations. It is found that southern China is possible to be severely affected by tsunami waves. The coastal regions of southern China can be attacked in 2.5~4 hours after the deformation of the plate. For the hypothetical case of Mw 9.0 earthquake, the maximum surface elevation will reach 300cm and the current speed can reach several m/s. Considering the local tsunami amplification over the shelf-break and shelf, the results could be more disastrous. Further research and monitoring of the tsunamis in this area are urgent and necessary.