The authors imagine the northern segment of the Manila Trench as an earthquake generated tsunami source. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model is used to simulate the propagation oi tsunami wave in the South China Sea. The sensitivity analysis for the effects of the deviations in earthquake magnitude on the maximum tsunami wave amplitudes and its arrival time at several specific locations in the northern area of the South China Sea is accomplished. The 4 locations are picked out: west to and near the north segment of the Manila Trench, an offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and two offshore areas southeast to and near Chinese Mainland. The sensitivity analysis shows that the maximum amplitude of tsunami wave is sensitive to the deviations in earthquake magnitude, whereas its arrival time is not. The simulating results of tsunami wave propagation in the South China Sea shows that it takes 24 minutes to reach the location in offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and about 60 minutes to reach offshore areas near Chinese Mainland for the maximum amplitude of tsunami.%本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域.
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