Probabilistic Analysis of Alaskan Beaufort Sea Ice Gouge Data

摘要

The traditional statistical ice gouge analysis method used to selectdesign pipeline burial depths for protection against ice gouging is basedon the exponential probability distribution. This paper reviews icegouge data collected along the route of the Northstar pipelines and inother regions in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea and assesses the use ofseveral alternate probability distribution functions to predict extremeice gouge design depths for future pipeline projects. A briefcomparative analysis also was conducted using known age Northstarpipeline route gouge data to investigate the effects of using all availablegouge depth data versus annual maximums only.