This paper reports an investigation of short-term prediction of bus dwell time based on historical AVL data collected from selected bus stops in Auckland, New Zealand. Time series prediction based on gene expression programming (GEP) for the first time conducted at several different bus stops to model and estimate bus dwell time. Performance of the proposed GEP model compared to the well-known autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Three different methods including mean absolute error, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The GEP performed reasonably well for a short-term prediction of bus dwell time and gave comparable accuracy to the ARIMA Model.
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