Towards an Agent Based Modeling: The Prediction and Prevention of the Spread of the Drywood Termite Cryptotermes brevis

摘要

We present initial efforts made to model the spread of the drywood termite in Angra do Heroismo, Azores, using an agent based modeling approach. First we describe how a simple Cellular Automata (CA) model was created in Netlogo to simulate the spread of the species based on simple assumptions concerning the ecology of the species. A second step was taken by increasing the complexity of the initial CA approach, adding new specific characteristics to each cell, based again on ecology of the species and its behavior towards the environment. Finally, we add agents to the model in order to simulate the human intervention in fighting back the pest. This new model has become a two-level Agent-Based model. We also evaluated the costs of this intervention. These efforts were supported by field research which allowed a continuous crosschecking of the results obtained in the model with the field data.