The Economics of the CO_2 Emission and Mitigation Modeling: A Study for China, USA and France, in the Period 2010-2050

摘要

In 2009 Copenhagen Summit, many countries have promised new reductions of CO_2 emissions in 2050, in considering the different countries' properties, mainly on populations evolution, economic growth and technology developments. In this article, an Impact Population Affluence Technology equation (IPAT) approach is employed to present the effects of these three different countries' properties on climate change. Thus CO_2 emission, demography, and economic growth scenarios in 2010-2050 are developed to study the future evolutions of CO_2 intensity and income per capita in China, USA and France. Based on 6 CO_2 intensity scenarios and on the latest available data from IEA, a CO_2 emission mitigation model is proposed in order to test the feasibility of the emissions targets. This model integrates three major types of technical improvements: (i) hybrid vehicles, (ii) energy structure changes, and (iii) energy efficiency improvement, in order to provide reasonable recommendations for the CO_2 mitigation in the three countries.