Modeling the impact of the weather factors on the electrical energy consumption in One of the Regions in the Southern Poland

摘要

The aim of this study is to present a new approach for analyzing the effect of temperatures and wind speed on the variability of the daily demand for electrical energy in Silesian region. Specific nature of the time series used in this paper, concerning electrical energy consumption and the weather variables, requires application of a special class of models - ARFIMAX-GARCH. The electricity demand shows a significant trend due to socioeconomic factors and daily and monthly seasonal effects. The result of the empirical study show that the relation between electricity load and temperature is affected by an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specification and by a dynamic component of temperature on load.