Generation System Planning with Consideration of Load Forecast Uncertainty and Energy Limited Units

摘要

This paper presents a method for generation system expansion planning with consideration of load forecast uncertainty and energy limited units. The applied method is based on predefined risk criteria, which is evaluated by a probabilistic methodology to ensure adequate and appropriate power supply for long-term demand. Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain the results which can be used to assist the decision maker in developing a power expansion plan. The proposed method has been tested with a modified Thailand power system including pumped storage units. The results illustrate the impact of demand uncertainty on the number of new generators needed in each studied year.