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Telecommunication subscribers' churn prediction model using machine learning

机译:使用机器学习的电信用户流失预测模型

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During the last two decades, we have seen mobile communication becoming the dominant medium of communication. In numerous countries, especially the developed ones, the market is saturated to the extent that each new customer must be won over from the competitors. At the same time, public policies and standardization of mobile communication now allow customers to easily switch over from one carrier to another, resulting in a fluid market. Since the cost of winning a new customer is far greater than the cost of retaining an existing one, mobile carriers have now shifted their focus from customer acquisition to customer retention. As a result, churn prediction has emerged as the most crucial Business Intelligence (BI) application that aims at identifying customers who are about to transfer their business to a competitor i.e. to churn. This paper aims to present commonly used data mining techniques for the identification of customers who are about to churn. Based on historical data, these methods try to find patterns which can identify possible churners. Some of the well-known algorithms used during this research are Regression analysis, Decision Trees and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The data set used in this study was obtained from Customer DNA website. It contains traffic data of 106,000 customers and their usage behavior for 3 months. We also discuss the use of re-sampling method in order to solve the problem of class imbalance. Our results show that in case of the data set used, decision trees is the most accurate classifier algorithm while identifying potential churners.
机译:在过去的二十年中,我们已经看到移动通信成为通信的主要媒介。在许多国家,特别是发达国家,市场已经饱和到一定程度,每个新客户都必须赢得竞争对手的青睐。同时,公共政策和移动通信的标准化现在允许客户轻松地从一个运营商切换到另一运营商,从而形成了一个不稳定的市场。由于赢得新客户的成本远远大于保留现有客户的成本,因此移动运营商现在已将重点从客户获取转移到客户保留。结果,客户流失预测已成为最关键的商业智能(BI)应用程序,旨在识别将要把其业务转移给竞争对手(即客户流失)的客户。本文旨在介绍用于识别即将流失的客户的常用数据挖掘技术。基于历史数据,这些方法试图找到可以识别可能的搅动的模式。在这项研究中使用的一些著名算法是回归分析,决策树和人工神经网络(ANN)。本研究中使用的数据集来自客户DNA网站。它包含106,000个客户的流量数据及其3个月的使用行为。我们还讨论了使用重采样方法以解决类不平衡的问题。我们的结果表明,在使用数据集的情况下,决策树是识别潜在客户的最准确的分类器算法。

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