The negative growth of agricultural technical progress Base on the quantitative analysis of time series data in China (1978–2010)

摘要

People always say, with the progress of technology, the economy increase a lot. But how much technical progress can affect economic growth, scholars have different opinions. In the field of agriculture in China, there have some studies, such as measure the contribution rate of agricultural technical progress in some regions of China or use 10 years data to calculate the contribution rate of agricultural technical progress. But there has not a study using this long time data to measure the contribution rate of agricultural technical progress since the reform and opening in China. In this paper, we use Solow Complementary method to measure the influence of technical progress to economic growth in China agriculture. We use as many year data as possible to ensure reliable results. And we found that the results are interesting, the contribution rate of agricultural technical progress is negative. It seems not accord with the fact, we will give some explanations to this phenomenon.