An Economic Model for Vehicle Ownership Quota and Usage Restriction Policy Analysis

摘要

Rationing policies, including vehicle ownership quota and vehicle usage restrictions,have been implemented in several megaregions to address congestion and other negativetransportation externalities. However, no model is available in the literature that allowsdirect comparison of these rationing policies. To bridge this gap, this study developsan analytical framework for analyzing and comparing transportation rationing policies,which consists of a mathematical model of joint household vehicle ownership and usagedecisions and welfare analysis methods based on compensating variation and consumersurplus. Under the assumptions of homogenous users and single time period, this studynds that vehicle usage rationing performs better when relatively small percentages ofusers (i.e. low rationing ratio) are rationed o the roads and when induced demandresulting from congestion mitigation is low. When the amount of induced demand ex-ceeds certain level, it is shown analytically that vehicle usage restrictions will alwayscause welfare losses. When the policy goal is to reduce vehicle travel by a large portion(i.e. high rationing ratio), the net social benets of vehicle ownership quota rationingpolicy become more obvious. The optimal rationing ratios for both rationing policiescan be determined by the model, and are inuenced by network congestion and con-gestibility. Various policy implications, as well as future research directions, are alsodiscussed.