MULTIPLE DISCRETE-CONTINUOUS CHOICE MODEL OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY REDUCTION ACROSSMULTIPLE SECTORS USING PRIORITY EVALUATOR DATA

摘要

This paper presents a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MDCEV) of energysavings. The model predicts household decisions where to reduce CO2 emissions if they wereforced to do so. The model’s approach is to include all sectors of energy consumption such asprivate transport, housing, meat consumption and air travel. The hypothesis is that if householdsview all energy consumption as part of one overall budget, trade-os between energy sectorsare possible and can be modeled. The data base for the model was established with a surveyamong Swiss homeowners who have at least one car. In the survey the Priority Evaluatormethod was implemented in a web application with which the participants interactively reducedtheir CO2 output to a predefined goal. The MDCEV chooses multiple alternatives a householdconsiders to reduce CO2 output and allocates the percentage of the overall reduction of to thechosen alternative. Estimation results show that installing new heating systems are preferredover refurbishment of roof and façade, an eect that is even greater for higher income levels.Females and higher income households are more likely to buy a more ecient car. Householdsliving in municipalities with better public transport accessibility are more likely to reduce annualmileage traveled. The paper also includes an assessment of the model performance analyzingthe residuals. The conclusion of the paper is that the hypothesis of one overall energy budgetcould not be supported.