MOBILE TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRY - A CASE OF INDIA

摘要

Mobile communications has resulted in a better connectivity and easy accessibility among people in today's dynamic mode of life. For the success of any technology and to have a substantial impact on the growth of the economy, it should spread widely in the environment. Diffusion of technologies differs across the emerging economies depending upon their economic situations, infrastructure, introduction timing of the technology etc. The evolution and adoption of mobile technology has been overwhelming in India. From a very low teledensity of about 1% in 1985, it has now approached about 35%. India had become the second largest mobile market in the world trailing only to China. Diffusion Process is a complex phenomenon because number of interconnected micro and macro factors effects the diffusion. Number of factors has contributed to the explosive growth of the mobile technology in India since the introduction of digital technology in 1995. Thus the objective of the paper is to understand the diffusion of mobile technology and the factors affecting the diffusion process and adopter decisions which are crucial in meeting needs of the large consumer base and making the mobile technology diffuse at a faster pace. The comprehensive review of various diffusion models employed in the study of mobile technology is presented. The epidemic model is selected to study the diffusion of mobile technology in India because it considers the social mixing and contact of users and non-users over time. It also provides a means of capturing the existence of network externalities in mobile telephony and easy inclusion of macro variables. The paper also analyzes the macro level forces influencing the rapid mobile diffusion in India. We select a set of stimulating variables which impacts the diffusion of mobile technology in Indian context. The time series data set of annual subscriber and mobile density are used to identify key factors which will help to accelerate the S-shaped diffusion in the dynamic environment.