A Study on the Validity of Money Supply as the Intermediate Target of Our Monetary Policy——the Empirical Study Based on Data from 1998 to 2011

摘要

This paper makes an empirical study on the validity of money supply as the intermediate target of our monetary policy and some factors affect inflation by using vector auto regression model(VAR),impulse response function (IRF),variance decomposition and other empirical models.It points out that the effectiveness of taking money supply as the intermediate target is reducing,while we should notice the influence of inflation expectations on the ultimate goals of monetary policy.This article believes that despite the independence of monetary policy and the non-market of interest rate,the govemment should consist in taking money supply as an intermediate target.Put the stability of price as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control,continue to implement the steady monetary policy,and maintain the strength of monetary policy.At last,we give some suggestions on this issue.