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IMPACTS OF A WARMING CLIMATE ON ENERGY DEMANDS ON U.S. NORTHEAST REGION

机译:温暖的气候对美国东北部地区能源需求的影响

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This paper analyzes the impacts of a changing climate to long-term energy activity reflected in power consumption and carbon emissions for the United States (US) Northeast (NE) region. This region represents approximately four percent of the total power consumption of the US. The paper revises the potential changes in the regional climate in the NE by analyzing long-term records of climatological data, and how these potential changes are impacting the energy demands and anthropogenic emissions due to power production. Climate records from 372 stations spread over the 9 states in the NE region were used for the period of time comprising from 1970 to 2010. The stations are part of NOAA's Cooperative Observation Stations (COOP) that includes data for precipitation and surface maximum, minimum and average temperatures. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the region were analyzed from NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) records. Long term records for state energy profiles were generated by examining the end-use sectors: residential, commercial and industrial sector using data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the COOP stations and SSTs reflect that the NE region presents an asymmetric warming reflected in significant coastal warming and inland cooling. A maximum land temperature variability of 1.61°C/decade was observed during this period of time with a mean value of 0.012°C/decade for the entire region. This coastal warming may be attributed to a combined effect of global warming and population growth reflected in urbanization and related effects such as the Urban Heat Island (UHI). A symmetric warming was found in minimum surface temperatures across the region with an average of 0.06°C/decade. Both land surface temperature increases are consistent with regional SSTs trends. The energy analysis suggests that a correlation may exist between the locations of highest energy consumption and urbanized coastal areas. Total energy consumption in coastal regions increased by 13 percent during 1960-2010, in contrast, inland sites consumption increased by 9 percent. At the sector level, CO2 emissions associated to residential energy demand drastically decreased over 37 percent per capita, attributed to energy efficiencies and possibly to a warmer region in winter times. Despite these trends, the NE region continues to be one of the largest C02 sources of US accounting for more than 15% of all emissions. These results reflect the need for better understanding of the connections between climate, energy demands and production to achieve sustainable growth.
机译:本文分析了气候变化对美国(美国)东北(NE)地区的电力消耗和碳排放所反映的长期能源活动的影响。该地区约占美国总功耗的4%。本文通过分析气候数据的长期记录以及这些潜在变化如何影响电力生产带来的能源需求和人为排放,来修正东北地区区域气候的潜在变化。使用了东北地区9个州的372个站点的气候记录,时间范围为1970年至2010年。这些站点是NOAA合作观测站(COOP)的一部分,其中包括降水和地表最大,最小和最小数据平均温度。根据NOAA扩展的重建海面温度(ERSST)记录分析了该地区的海面温度(SSTs)。通过检查最终用途部门(住宅,商业和工业部门),使用能源信息管理局(EIA)的数据生成了国家能源概况的长期记录。 COOP站和SST的结果表明,东北地区呈现出不对称的变暖现象,反映在明显的沿海变暖和内陆降温中。在这段时间内,最大陆地温度变化为1.61°C /十年,整个区域的平均值为0.012°C /十年。这种沿海变暖可能归因于全球变暖和反映在城市化进程中的人口增长以及诸如城市热岛(UHI)之类的相关影响的综合影响。在整个区域的最低表面温度中发现了对称变暖,平均温度为0.06°C /十年。两种陆地表面温度的上升都与区域SST趋势一致。能源分析表明,能源消耗最高的地区与沿海城市化地区之间可能存在相关性。 1960-2010年期间,沿海地区的能源总消耗量增长了13%,而内陆地区的能源消耗量增长了9%。在部门层面,与居民能源需求相关的二氧化碳排放量人均减少了37%以上,这归因于能源效率的提高,并且可能归因于冬季的温暖区域。尽管有这些趋势,东北地区仍然是美国最大的二氧化碳排放源之一,占所有排放量的15%以上。这些结果表明需要更好地了解气候,能源需求与生产之间的联系,以实现可持续增长。

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