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IMPACTS OF A WARMING CLIMATE ON ENERGY DEMANDS ON U.S. NORTHEAST REGION

机译:温暖气候对美国东北地区能源需求的影响

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This paper analyzes the impacts of a changing climate to long-term energy activity reflected in power consumption and carbon emissions for the United States (US) Northeast (NE) region. This region represents approximately four percent of the total power consumption of the US. The paper revises the potential changes in the regional climate in the NE by analyzing long-term records of climatological data, and how these potential changes are impacting the energy demands and anthropogenic emissions due to power production. Climate records from 372 stations spread over the 9 states in the NE region were used for the period of time comprising from 1970 to 2010. The stations are part of NOAA's Cooperative Observation Stations (COOP) that includes data for precipitation and surface maximum, minimum and average temperatures. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the region were analyzed from NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) records. Long term records for state energy profiles were generated by examining the end-use sectors: residential, commercial and industrial sector using data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the COOP stations and SSTs reflect that the NE region presents an asymmetric warming reflected in significant coastal warming and inland cooling. A maximum land temperature variability of 1.61°C/decade was observed during this period of time with a mean value of 0.012°C/decade for the entire region. This coastal warming may be attributed to a combined effect of global warming and population growth reflected in urbanization and related effects such as the Urban Heat Island (UHI). A symmetric warming was found in minimum surface temperatures across the region with an average of 0.06°C/decade. Both land surface temperature increases are consistent with regional SSTs trends. The energy analysis suggests that a correlation may exist between the locations of highest energy consumption and urbanized coastal areas. Total energy consumption in coastal regions increased by 13 percent during 1960-2010, in contrast, inland sites consumption increased by 9 percent. At the sector level, CO2 emissions associated to residential energy demand drastically decreased over 37 percent per capita, attributed to energy efficiencies and possibly to a warmer region in winter times. Despite these trends, the NE region continues to be one of the largest C02 sources of US accounting for more than 15% of all emissions. These results reflect the need for better understanding of the connections between climate, energy demands and production to achieve sustainable growth.
机译:本文分析了变化气候变化对长期能源活动的影响,反映了美国(美国)东北(NE)地区的电力消耗和碳排放量。该地区代表了美国总功耗的约4%。本文通过分析气候数据的长期记录,对网站中区域气候的潜在变化进行了修改,以及这些潜在变化如何影响由于电力生产引起的能源需求和人为排放。 372站的气候记录在NE地区分布在90年代的90年代,用于1970年至2010年的一段时间。该站是NOAA合作观察站(COOP)的一部分,包括降水和表面最大值,最低限度的数据平均气温。从NOAA扩展重建海表面温度(ERSST)记录中分析了该地区的海面温度(SST)。通过检查最终使用部门的状态能源概况的长期记录:使用来自能源信息管理(EIA)的数据进行住宅,商业和工业部门。 Coop Stations和SST的结果反映了NE区域在显着的沿海变暖和内陆冷却中呈现不对称的温暖。在这段时间内观察到1.61°C /十年的最大土地温度变化,平均值为整个区域的0.012°C /十年。这种沿海变暖可能归因于全球变暖和人口增长的综合影响,体现在城市化和城市热岛(UHI)等相关效果中。在该地区的最小表面温度下发现了对称变暖,平均为0.06°C /十年。土地表面温度升高与区域SSTS趋势一致。能量分析表明,在最高能耗和城市化沿海地区的位置之间可能存在相关性。 1960 - 2010年,沿海地区的总能耗增加了13%,相比之下,内陆地点消费增加了9%。在部门级别,与住宅能源需求相关的二氧化碳排放量大幅下降超过37%,归因于能源效率,并可能在冬季时代的较温暖的地区。尽管有这些趋势,但NE地区仍然是美国最大的C02来源之一,占所有排放量的15%以上。这些结果反映了更好地理解气候,能源需求和生产之间的联系,以实现可持续增长。

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