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Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method

机译:使用有效贝叶斯方法的时变可靠性分析

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The paper presents an efficient method for time-dependent reliability analysis. Probabilistic modeling is used to quantify uncertainties and additional information is incorporated using Bayes theorem to perform various updating and reduce inference uncertainty. To improve the computational efficiency, Laplace approximation and inverse reliability methods are proposed to evaluate the Bayesian posterior distributions and reliability responses, respectively. A numerical example and and fatigue reliability application are presented to demonstrate the overall methodology. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method is compared with traditional simulation-based method.
机译:本文提出了一种有效的基于时间的可靠性分析方法。概率建模用于量化不确定性,并使用贝叶斯定理合并其他信息以执行各种更新并减少推理不确定性。为了提高计算效率,提出了拉普拉斯逼近和逆可靠性方法来分别评估贝叶斯后验分布和可靠性响应。给出了数值示例和疲劳可靠性应用程序,以演示整体方法。将该方法的效率和有效性与传统的基于仿真的方法进行了比较。

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