Time-Dependent Reliability Model of Deteriorating Structures Based on Stochastic Processes and Bayesian Inference Methods

摘要

Performance and reliability of structures will deteriorate with time as a result of the effects of various loads and the environment. This paper aims to develop a time-dependent reliability model of deteriorating structures that considers both aging effects and random shocks. First, a deteriorating model is proposed in which the aging effect is modeled as a gamma process while random shock is described by a Poisson process. The time-dependent reliability of the structural components is then evaluated based on the model. To incorporate the effects of model uncertainties, Bayesian inference methods are further integrated with the reliability model to update the uncertain parameters in the model using sampling data. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed model provides a reasonable method for evaluating the reliability of deteriorating structures containing model uncertainties. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.