Uncertainties, risks, and opportunities in development of hydrocarbon fields

摘要

The main objectives of this paper are to contribute to change people's attitude to uncertainty, and transform project risk management into project uncertainty management, to develop the proper project risks management processes, and to achieve a balance between exploiting opportunities and controlling risks. We will analyze the uncertainties and risks in the decision making process, in particular in the early project phases, and explore factors that cause cost and schedule savings and overruns. It is important to distinguish between positive and negative impacts of uncertainty, and then give suggestions to the manager for successful execution of the project in the later phase. We suggest that further research is needed to completely and successfully integrate the strategic risk management process into the organization. The practical challenges shall be reconciled with the organization to implement uncertainty management successfully. Emphasis should be put on the company's adoption of HSE culture into the organizational culture.